As the United States embraces a plan to get rid of all chemical weapons in Syria, the Syrian rebels are reorganizing themselves into Islamic coalitions that are independent of the US-backed Syrian National Coalition and are in opposition to an ascendant al-Qaeda. This reorganization represents a significant loss of US influence among the rebels, their willingness to adopt a hard-core Islamist character, and the probability of internal fighting between al-Qaeda and the other Sunni rebels in Syria.
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August 28, 2013
Syria’s political reality is changing from a unified state into a fragmented series of regions. A Sunni enclave is developing in the north and east, a regime controlled area in the west and south, and a Kurdish autonomous area in the northeast. Kurdish autonomy will help bolster Turkish influence in the region while a US-led strike against the regime will only solidify the Balkanizing process in Syria.
August 19, 2013
Al-Qaeda branches in Syria are consolidating their holds over Sunni areas in North and East Syria. Its strategies include displacing local Sunni sheikhs by controlling governance and the economy, while ethnically cleansing Shia population centers. Further escalating tensions are Iranian media campaigns that influence Shia militias to go fight Sunni rebels in Syria.
June 3, 2013
With fighting in Syria escalating, Hezbollah has openly began assisting the Syrian regime in the battle for the strategic city of Qusayr. Sunni rebel groups, including the al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front, are retaliating by beginning violent campaigns in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is attempting to capitalize on the chaos in Syria by bombing Shia population centers in Iraq. An analysis of these recent developments illustrates the short- to mid-term forecast of events in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
April 12, 2013
Praemon is proud to release this, the first Annual Threat Report. In addition to each student contributor’s regular pieces on varying national security issues, the Annual Threat Report (ATR) is a large-scale, collaborative analysis project. The purpose of the ATR is to identify the handful of threats that we, the members of Praemon, consider to […]